Geopolitical Battlegrounds and Stranded Asset Strategies

The war on Russia, Iran, Canada, and other non-western oil and gas resources

The ongoing geopolitical crises surrounding fossil fuel-producing nations have increasingly illuminated what many experts, including myself have described as the “black swan” battles at the heart of the fossil fuel era’s collapse. Recent events such as the Western-backed destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, fomenting the Ukraine Special Military Operation, and the intensification of US sanctions including secondary sanctions on nations buying Russian fossil fuels demonstrate a consistent undercurrent. These are an attempt by Western powers, led by the United States, to control who emerges from the impending fossil fuel stranded asset crisis.

The Context of Fossil Fuel Stranded Assets

Fossil fuels represent a globally colossal investment in reserves that are fast becoming economically and politically stranded. As the imperative to decarbonize intensifies, these reserves risk remaining unburned, creating “stranded assets” worth trillions, threatening national economies dependent on fossil fuel revenues. The race to deploy or offload these assets before they lose value has become the new geopolitical battleground.

US Sanctions Aim to Lock in and strand Russian Fossil Fuel Revenues

In early 2025, the US dramatically ramped up sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector, aiming to choke off key revenue streams that fund Russia’s military actions and influence. Sanctions include blocking major Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, targeting the shadow fleet of over 180 vessels engaged in illicit oil transportation, imposing bans on oilfield services, and cutting off maritime insurers essential for Russian energy exports. Notably, the US has restricted energy-related payments through financial institutions, with some permissions expiring by March 12, 2025, effectively isolating Russia’s energy trade from Western financial systems.

These direct sanctions reflect a broader G7 commitment to suppress Russian fossil fuel income but also demonstrate a strategic attempt to force Russia to disgorge fossil fuel assets under non-competitive or constrained terms. Secondary sanctions further threaten countries like China and India that continue to purchase Russian oil, pressing them to comply or face exclusion from the US financial system and punitive tariffs.

Secondary Sanctions and Diplomatic Pressures on Buyers

The concept of “secondary sanctions”—penalizing third-party countries and companies that buy Russian fossil fuels—is a significant escalation. US political leaders, including former President Trump in 2025, have pushed legislation granting authority to impose tariffs and sanctions on these buyers, with potential tariffs reaching as high as 500%. Such measures threaten the delicate balance between applying economic pressure on Russia and maintaining diplomatic relations with major buyers in Asia.

Despite sanctions, Russia’s fossil fuel exports have shown resilience due to the “shadow fleet”—a network of vessels operating with obscure ownership and lacking Western insurance or financing, enabling shipments to continue outside typical sanctions frameworks. This resilience has frustrated Western attempts to fully isolate Russia’s fossil fuel revenues.

The Nord Stream Pipelines: Strategic Destruction as Control Tactic

The Nord Stream pipelines, critical conduits for Russian natural gas to Europe, were sabotaged in 2022 in an event widely attributed to Western interests, though definitive public proof remains elusive. Intelligence sources and respected investigations have pointed to a pro-Ukrainian group or Western operators acting to cut off this critical energy route to Europe, thereby undermining Russia’s ability to leverage its fossil fuel exports as a geopolitical weapon.

The destruction fits squarely into this broader clash over fossil fuel dominance, as it forces European nations to seek alternative, often higher-cost, sources of energy, further diminishing Russia’s deleterious hold on European energy dependence.

The Ukraine Special Military Operation: A Proxy War with Energy Dimensions

Russia’s ongoing Special Military Operation in Ukraine, combined with the Western sanctions regime, has starkly altered global fossil fuel markets. The war that oh so coincidentally shortly preceded the opening of the massive Nordstream II pipeline to supply Europe with secure cheap Russian gas has not only destabilized supply chains but also has motivated the US and EU to accelerate efforts to strand and supplant Russian energy for Europe and elsewhere.

European economies have felt the strain, balancing sanctions against their reliance on Russian oil and gas, which historically accounted for significant import volumes. The conflict has accelerated investments and political will for renewable and alternative energy sources, hastening the decline of fossil fuel political economy.

The Larger Black Swan Battle for Fossil Fuel Inventory Release

The underlying theme connecting these tensions is the battle over which nations will be able to liquefy and sell their fossil fuel reserves before market and regulatory forces render them worthless. The US-led sanctions and covert actions like the Nord Stream sabotage reveal an effort to fence off Russia’s ability to exploit its stranded assets and to impose market discipline—or coercion—on other producers and buyers.

This battlefield is not merely economic but unmistakably strategic and military. By constraining fossil fuel flows from sanctioned nations and threatening secondary sanctions, the US aims to corral global fossil fuel inventory release, maximizing geopolitical influence and hobbling rivals.

Black Swan Definition: In the context of fossil fuels and energy geopolitics, the “black swan” refers to a rare, unpredictable, and transformative event or series of events that fundamentally disrupt the established energy order. This includes sudden shifts that render vast fossil fuel reserves stranded and worthless, triggering geopolitical and economic upheavals. The emergence of disruptive technologies including cold fusion also represents a potential black swan that will upend global energy markets and power dynamics.

The Emerging Cold Fusion Revolution: The Ultimate Black Swan in Energy

Amidst this turmoil of war and sanctions an altogether different and transformative energy revolution is quietly nearing fruition—the development of practical cold fusion technologies. At atom-ecology.russgeorge.net, I have long championed cold fusion as the ultimate black swan event waiting to disrupt the global energy order.

Cold fusion, as it soon becomes realized on a commercial scale, promises to deliver near-limitless, clean, and decentralized energy with minimal environmental impact. Unlike fossil fuels or even traditional nuclear fission, cold fusion technologies struggling through 35 years of stressed development will now emerge rapidly, for deployment in diverse geographic and economic contexts, and importantly, not tied to today’s concentrated resource geopolitics. This means that the nations and peoples traditionally sidelined in global energy markets—the “energy have nots”—could soon achieve energy wealth and independence.

The enormous potential of cold fusion threatens to make obsolete the very fossil fuel assets that the Western powers are fighting so hard to sell off before they become stranded and to command and control this process through sanctions, sabotage, and war. The race to dominate fossil fuel stranded assets may soon give way to a race to deploy cold fusion and claim new energy sovereignty.

From an atom-ecology perspective, the cold fusion breakthrough would be a cataclysmic black swan that upends the entire fossil fuel-driven geopolitical matrix. It would democratize energy access globally, foster economic development in previously energy-poor regions, and accelerate the transition to a sustainable planetary energy system.

Conclusion

The international alignment of sanctions, covert infrastructure sabotage, and ongoing military conflict across Europe and Eurasia underscore a foundational truth of the fossil fuel era’s twilight: the black swan event is unfolding not as a single shock but as a drawn-out sequence of strategic maneuvers. The battle over fossil fuel stranded assets reshapes alliances, disciplines economies, and enforces a harsh reckoning on political economies reliant on hydrocarbons.

These events are both a last gasp of the old fossil fuel order and a prelude to a profound energy transformation. The cold fusion black swan will rewrite the energy map, and its arrival could redefine geopolitical power in ways not yet fully imagined.

For readers following the evolution of energy geopolitics, these developments are key signposts revealing how the global order is recalibrating around climate imperatives, power, and economics. The fossil fuel black swan is no longer just a theorized risk but an active phenomenon playing out on the world stage.